Darmowy fragment publikacji:
Impact of economic crisis
on the functioning of political systems
A case study of Greece, Spain, and Italy
Tomasz Kubin
Małgorzata Lorencka
Małgorzata Myśliwiec
Impact of economic crisis
on the functioning of political systems
A case study of Greece, Spain, and Italy
Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Śląskiego • Katowice 2017
Editor of the Series: Nauki Polityczne
Mariusz Kolczyński
Referee
Radosław Grabowski
The project has been funded by the National Science Centre,
decision No. DEC-2013/09/B/HS5/00021
Table of contents
Research and methodological assumptions 7
Tomasz Kubin, Małgorzata Lorencka, Małgorzata Myśliwiec
References 21
C h a p t e r 1
The economic crisis in Greece, Spain, and Italy 23
Tomasz Kubin
1 1 Introductory notes 23
1 2 General causes of the economic crisis of 2008 25
1 3 Causes and economic manifestations of the crisis in Greece, Spain, and Italy 28
1 4 Greece, Spain, and Italy in the fight with the economic effects of the crisis 64
1 5 Conclusions 79
References 81
C h a p t e r 2
Influence of the economic crisis on the functioning of the political system
of Greece 87
Małgorzata Lorencka
2 1 Introductory notes 87
2 2 Historical background of the economic crises in Greece 90
2 3 Radicalisation of social sentiment 94
2 4 Decrease of public confidence in state institutions 98
2 5 Increase of support for radical political groups 105
2 6 Referendum of 5 July 2015 114
2 7 State structure reforms 116
2 8 Conclusions 117
References 125
6
Table of contents
C h a p t e r 3
Influence of the 2008 economic crisis on the functioning of the political
system of contemporary Spain 129
Małgorzata Myśliwiec
3 1 Introductory notes 129
3 2 Economic factors and the shape of the political system after 1978 130
3 3 Loss of confidence in state institutions after 2008 135
3 4 New social movements and political parties 147
3 5 Elections to the General Cortes of 20 December 2015 and their political conse-
quences 160
3 6 Spanish constitutional draft amendments 163
3 7 Increase of decentralising tendencies 167
3 8 Conclusions 170
References 175
C h a p t e r 4
Influence of the economic crisis on the functioning of the political system
of Italy 177
Małgorzata Lorencka
4 1 Introduction 177
4 2 Socio-economic factors and the development of the political system in Italy 179
4 3 Towards three-bloc political rivalry 187
4 4 Meaning of the institution of the President of the Italian Republic and the Consti-
tutional Court in the crisis period 197
4 5 Change of the electoral law and the constitutional reform of the government of
Matteo Renzi 207
4 6 Rationalisation of a decentralised state model 214
4 7 Conclusions 218
References 223
Verification of research assumptions 229
Tomasz Kubin, Małgorzata Lorencka, Małgorzata Myśliwiec
References 235
List of charts 237
List of tables 239
List of figures 241
Notes on contributors 243
Summary in Polish 245
Summary in Italian 247
Summary in Greek 249
Summary in Spanish 251
Research and methodological assumptions
Tomasz Kubin, Małgorzata Lorencka, Małgorzata Myśliwiec
The global economic crisis that symbolically began with the bankruptcy of
the Lehman Brothers bank in September 2008, led to a series of new economic,
social, and political phenomena. The crisis encouraged many researchers, rep-
resenting various fields of science, to begin analysing its consequences. Work
devoted to this issue was also pursued by political scientists. One of the most
intriguing and dynamic fields of research concerns contemporary political sys-
tems.1 The processes that occur in this field and which are a consequence of the
influence exerted by the surrounding environment in which they function, could
not go unnoticed. The reason for this is in the nature of systemic analysis itself.
As noted by Adam Jamróz, who referenced the view points of Michael Crozier
and Erhard Frediberg in his work, “the essence of systemic reasoning is treat-
ing a given phenomenon as a structured whole, the elements of which remain
co-dependent and coordinated in their workings.”2 A characteristic feature of
systemic reasoning is using a pattern of “systemic causality,” which “assumes
the co-dependency of consequences and causes within the framework of a given
system, the features of which […] permit us to explain and foresee the results
of its activity.”3 Application of systemic analysis thus obliges the researcher
to define at least two matters. The first involves indication of at least several
1 A more detailed analysis of the literature on the subject dealing with changes in the func-
tioning of political systems that occurred after the 2008 economic crisis has been carried out by
Carolina Plaza Colodro in the publication: “Los efectos de la crisis económica en los sistemas
políticos europeos.” Revista de estudios políticos 2015, no. 170, pp. 317—336.
2 A. Jamróz: “Wprowadzenie. Struktura i mechanizm funkcjonowania burżuazyjnych
systemów politycznych.” In: Systemy polityczne wysoko rozwiniętych krajów kapitalistycznych.
Ed. A. Jamróz. Warszawa 1989, p. 6.
3 Ibidem.
8
Tomasz Kubin, Małgorzata Lorencka, Małgorzata Myśliwiec
interdependencies existing between the elements composing a system, which is
understood as a whole. Secondly, it is necessary “to outline the borders between
such a structured entirety that constitutes the actual system, and the external
conditions determining its activity, which in turn constitutes the environment
the system operates in.”4 Such a structured approach derives from the fact that
the systemic analysis concept encompasses two main assumptions. The first one
is that the source of all changes and transformations lies in the system itself.
The other one, however, points to the fact that “any changes taking place within
a system are the result of a feedback-type relationship between the system and
its environment.”5
These were the same assumptions that guided the authors of this study in
their research. Before any research could begin, however, a precise selection of
the research field had to be made and the aforementioned constituents, which
are characteristic for a systemic analysis, had to be defined. Firstly, the authors
decided to select the states, whose political systems would be researched. Three
southern European states, namely Greece, Spain, and Italy, have been chosen.
According to the authors, the economic crisis, the beginnings of which date
back to 2008, impacted these states the most severely out of all the countries in
the European Union.
The next challenge was to define the set of political, historical, geographic,
social, and economic conditions, which form the environment of the political
systems to be analysed. The most important factor defining the nature of the
planned work was surely the economic factor, which constitutes the aforemen-
tioned crisis. This was evidenced by the first observations preceding the selec-
tion of the research field, which revealed that serious changes in the function-
ing of all three political systems occurred after the crisis ensued, that is, after
2008. Conducting a meticulous problem analysis therefore required its causes,
its course, and consequences to be characterised, for it needs to be emphasised
that political science considers economic conditions to be a key element impact-
ing political systems. Edward Haliżak rightly claims that “the truth about social
phenomena is of a cross-disciplinary nature and restricting oneself to only one
field of research prevents one from fully understanding it”6 and that is why
“separating politics from economy serves a purely analytical purpose.”7
By outlining a general overview of the relationship between politics and
economy8 (and between political science and the economics in a theoretical di-
4 Ibidem, p. 7.
5 Ibidem.
6 E. Haliżak: “Polityka i ekonomia. O potrzebie rozwijania badań w duchu ekonomii poli-
tycznej.” Studia Nauk Politycznych 2004, no. 1 (year I), 2nd series, p. 167.
7 Ibidem, p. 173.
8 See T. kubin: Polityczne implikacje wprowadzenia unii walutowej w Europie. Katowice
2007, pp. 21—25.
Research and methodological assumptions
9
mension) it is concluded that economy needs to be understood as a science about
how to optimally utilise a limited range of resources that have been made avail-
able for use by the people. Considering the strive to optimise the utilisation of
these resources, the ideal situation would be when the sole criterion for making
any decisions concerning the economy was to achieve their maximum economic
efficiency. This, of course, would constitute a best-case scenario, one that has
never actually existed. When considered in the light of the relationship between
politics and the economy, this would mean the economy’s absolute domination
over politics. At the other end of the extreme, if politics were to completely
dominate over the economy, any decisions concerning the economy would be
made without any consideration for the existing conditions and limitations of an
economic nature. In practice, should a situation of this kind be at all possible, it
would last for a relatively short period of time. Such a scenario, however, has no
standing in the long-run, for as noted by Michał Dobroczyński: “[…] the politi-
cal factor periodically dominates over impetuous economic processes, however,
the latter — especially in the long run — leads to a reversal of the dependency
and begins to dominate over a primitively understood need for administrative
power.”9 In practice, within the politics-economy interdependency existing at
a given moment in a state, there exists a series of various intermediary states
that result from a variety of factors such as historic legacy, the political system,
economic system, level of economic development, significant ideological values
existing in a society, membership of a state in international organisations, inter-
national conditions in the broad sense of the term, etc.
Walter Hallstein wrote that “the essence of politics, however, is choice.”10
Decisions on choosing certain objectives in politics and the means for their
realisation, including those pertaining to the economy, are performed “on the
basis of a defined value system. Social values, which social aspirations interact
with, and which can either unify or lead to the disintegration of an entire size-
able social group, also constitute political values.”11 Ideological values constitute
a link between politics and the economy. “Individuals and social groups always
valuate the expected results when preparing their actions. They also valuate the
projected measures, the use of which will contribute to the achievement of the
objective.”12 In this way, economic actions and decisions are made on the basis
of economic factors. However, political factors also play an important role, as
they constitute an expression of the preferences of various groups of interest13
— macroeconomic policy is closely related to various ideologies and platforms
9 m. dobroCzyński: Międzynarodowe związki gospodarki z polityką. Toruń 2003, p. 56.
10 W. HallsTEin: United Europe. Challenge and Opportunity. Cambridge (Mass.) 1962,
11 a. bodnar: Ekonomika i polityka. Warszawa 1978, p. 14.
12 Ibidem, p. 206.
13 E. Haliżak: “Polityka i ekonomia. O potrzebie rozwijania badań…,” p. 172.
p. 58.
10
Tomasz Kubin, Małgorzata Lorencka, Małgorzata Myśliwiec
of different political parties.14 In other words, “the distribution of income and
wealth is the driving force of the political process.”15 For this reason very rarely
can decisions influencing, for instance, the scale of inequality in income among
people, inflation, scale of income redistribution, what (i.e. work, capital, con-
sumption) and to what degree should be taxed, etc. be made and explained on
the basis of data or economic indications. These therefore cannot be treated and
analysed solely as strictly “technical decisions.” Nevertheless one needs to bear
in mind the specific political conditions and circumstances present when the
decisions were taken and the fact that they affect different social groups (groups
of interest) in various ways. A given group may profit from or lose given re-
sources as a result of a given decision, or action (or lack of decision or action).
As a consequence, its situation compared to other groups can either improve or
deteriorate. This therefore is not only of economic, but also of political impor-
tance. Furthermore, such a “gain” or “loss” affects the political behaviours of
such a group in obvious ways. As noted by Artur Bodnar: “[…] all economic ac-
tions that directly affect the interests of large social groups, are actions of great
political significance, while the decisions that initiate or adjust these actions
on a widespread scale are political decisions of an economic nature.”16 Thomas
Piketty also writes the following about the distribution of wealth between peo-
ple, a key aspect in economic politics:
The history of the distribution of wealth has always been deeply political,
and it cannot be reduced to purely economic mechanism. […] The history of
inequality is shaped by the way economic, social, and political actors view
what is just and what is not, as well as by the relative power of those actors
and the collective choices that result. It is the joint product of all relevant ac-
tors combined.17
The interdependencies between the economy and politics or, in other words,
the influence of the economic environment on the political system, plays a key
role in democratic states, where the influence of particular social groups (groups
of interest) on the political decisions taken is, at least in theory, the greatest. In
this particular dimension, democracy presents itself as a system, which contri-
14 k.r. mCnamara: The Currency of Ideas. Monetary Politics in the European Union. New
York 1998, p. 2.
15 b. sTEunEnbErg, H.J. blommEsTEin: “Governments and Markets: An Introduction.” In:
Governments and Markets. Establishing a Democratic Constitutional Order and a Market Econ-
omy in Former Socialist Countries. Eds. H.J. blommEsTEin, b. sTEunEnbErg. Dordrecht 1994,
p. 7.
16 a. bodnar: Ekonomika i polityka…, p. 199.
17 T. PikETTy: Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Trans. A. goldHammEr. Cambridge
(Mass.)—London 2014, p. 20. The following footnotes refer to the Polish edition of the book:
T. PikETTy: Kapitał w XXI wieku. Trans. A. bilik. Warszawa 2015.
Research and methodological assumptions
11
butes to a large degree to the “politicisation” of decisions that appear to be clear-
ly economic and “technical.” Subjects that wield power in a democratic political
system make economic decisions based on their potential for improving their
chances of re-election. Subjects that aspire to take over power, in turn, criticise
these decisions and try to convince as broad an electoral base as possible that
the decisions taken once they are in power, will better cater to their interests.
Apart from interests, ideas (ideologies) and values represented by various
social groups, another factor that “binds” politics with the economy, are the in-
stitutions that function within a political system. Every political and economic
activity is regulated by specific public institutions that define the legal frame-
work of the activity, formulate objectives, methods, and instruments needed to
perform the activity, act to achieve its objectives, monitor its realisation and
control the conformance of the activity with legal regulations.
A more elaborate and presently most significant dimension of the general
politics-economy interdependence is the state-market relationship. The issues of
purposefulness, location, scale, or methods of interference of public institutions
in the economy are one of the key issues in economic and political analysis and
are fundamental for the execution of political power. The state interferes in the
economy from the very beginning of its existence. In terms of the opinions on
the legitimacy of such interference, at one end of the state-market axis, which
constitutes a somewhat simplified representation of the relationship, is the posi-
tion that the market should dominate to the fullest extent possible, whereas the
role of the state should be limited to a minimum. The role of the state should
be limited only to ensuring the people and companies the right conditions for
conducting business, namely, a stable legal system that would guarantee unham-
pered entreprenurial freedom, its effective execution, the proper technical infra-
structure, a stable currency, and safety. According to such an approach, taxes
should be kept to a minimum, the state should not interfere in production and
the exchange of goods and services, in contracts signed on the free market, in
wealth distribution, etc. On the other end of the extreme is the position accord-
ing to which public institutions should have a decisively upper hand over market
forces to the degree that the market, as a means of allocation and distribution of
resources, should be entirely or almost entirely, eliminated. All means of pro-
duction should remain with the state, companies remaining under the complete
control of state institutions should deal with production and the distribution of
all goods and services, while private businesses should be reduced to a mini-
mum or eliminated altogether. The most extreme of scenarios sees no room not
only for private ownership of production means, but also the private property
of anything or nearly anything — all goods should be common, public or social
property, depending on the accepted rhetoric.
As in the case of the politics-economy relationship, the above views on the
role of the state in the economy are also theoretical in nature. In reality we have
12
Tomasz Kubin, Małgorzata Lorencka, Małgorzata Myśliwiec
dealt with and still deal with many different intermediate variations, that is, with
different levels of interference of the state in a grossly free-market economy
or with the provision of a smaller or greater range of economic freedom in
a centrally-planned economy (socialist, communist). In order to gain a better
understanding of this issue, it is worth noting that we are dealing with a visible
increase in the state’s role in the economy for more or less a hundred years. The
most synthetic indicator to prove this is the share of tax-related income in the
state budget. Over the course of the 19th century until the breakout of WWI,
this share constituted no more than 10 . The taxes gained thus were used to
finance such expenditure as defense, safety, and public order, the justice sys-
tem, administration and, on a relatively small scale, investment in infrastructure
or maintaining a defined number of schools, universities, and hospitals. From
the 1920s to the 1970s, the share of taxes in the national income of the richest
countries rose several times from ca. 30 (USA) to 55 (Sweden) of the total
national income. From the 1980 until now, this level has remained more or
less stable. Public money is spent primarily on financing the education system,
health care, retirement and disability pensions as well as on the construction and
maintenance of infrastructure.18
The relationship between politics and the economy can be assessed in sev-
eral ways. As noted by Grażyna Ulicka, the first of these relates to the already
mentioned economy-politics interdependency, both treated as separate, albeit
closely related and interdependent areas of public life. The second one relates
to a matter already raised, namely to the relationship between political party
entities and the economy in different social and economic systems. For the pur-
poses of our study, two other dependencies between politics and the economy
play and even more important role. These concern the various indicators (and
the dynamic of their change) that reflect the economic situation (and its changes)
of a given state on its political system, that is, on the stability of this system
and the processes and changes taking place within it. Last but not least, we can
attempt to explain how a given economic policy and/or the state of the economy
impacts the political process and how the political elites and the ruling majority
are perceived.19 Taking into consideration the subject of this work, one example
worth analysing is Greece, where the majority of the population believes that the
crisis was instigated by “international forces to control the economy, the wealth
and the government of the country.”20 An increasing number of Greeks were of
18 T. PikETTy: Kapitał…, pp. 585—587.
19 g. uliCka: “Determinanty polityki.” In: Wprowadzenie do nauki o państwie i polityce.
Eds. b. szmulik, m. żmigrodzki. Lublin 2002, p. 313.
2015, p. 39.
20 a. ioannis: The Greek Tragedy. The European Financial Crisis in Simple Words. [n. p.]
Research and methodological assumptions
13
the opinion that the two largest political parties in Greece — the PASOK and
New Democracy — were controlled by these international powers.21
The aforementioned considerations undoubtedly point to the fact that eco-
nomic factors have a critical influence on the functioning of contemporary po-
litical systems. For this reason, the idea of analysing their influence on the func-
tioning of the political systems of Greece, Spain, and Italy in the context of the
economic crisis of 2008 has become the basis for the preparation of this research
plan. A preliminary analysis of the issue has also shown that the historical,
geographical, and social conditions have constituted key components of the en-
vironment surrounding the political systems. A troubled political and economic
past, especially the country’s geographical location at the southern peripheries
of Europe, and significant social changes that occurred as a result of the global
economic crisis of 2008, have become springboards for further analysis.
Finally, a key step before proceeding to the actual research is the identifica-
tion of those elements and subsystems of the selected political systems that are
to be analysed in detail. It was initially assumed that the study would investigate
three horizontal power segments (the legislative, executive, and judicial) and
public power centres operating on three levels in a vertical arrangement (i.e.
state, regional, and local). Changes that were seen taking place therein dem-
onstrated the highest level of dynamics, such that had not been seen in these
states for a long period of time. Party systems, that is, subsystems of the politi-
cal systems selected for the study, were seen to attract particular attention in
this period. A general action plan outlined in this way constitutes a specific
background for the main subject of the book presented, namely how the mani-
festations and consequences of the global economic crisis that began in 2008
influenced the functioning of the political systems of Greece, Spain, and Italy.
An analysis of the influence of the economic crisis on the functioning of
selected political systems required the posing of several research questions, the
most important of which included:
1. What are the features of an economic crisis and how can we identify its
symptoms in the economy of a state?
2. What were the causes of the current economic crisis in Europe?
3. Why did the economic crisis affect Greece, Spain, and Italy so severely?
4. What role did the particular centres of power in these countries (central and
regional governments) play in the development and severe exacerbation of
the economic crisis?
5. What influence did the economic crisis have on the rhythm of the electoral
6. What influence did the economic crisis have on the functioning of party
cycles in the studied states?
systems in the studied states?
21 Ibidem.
3. The economic crisis in Greece, Spain, and in Italy influenced the functioning
4. The economic crisis in Spain, and in Italy helped intensify decentralisation
rhythm of the electoral cycle.
of the party systems of these states.
tendencies in these states.
14
Tomasz Kubin, Małgorzata Lorencka, Małgorzata Myśliwiec
7. What influence did the economic crisis have on the intensification of decen-
tralising tendencies in the studied states?
8. What influence did the economic crisis have on the intensification of anti-
system political postulates in the studied states?
The need to find answers to the questions posed and to recognise their
importance inclined the authors of this book to assume several detailed hypoth-
eses. Considering the specificity of the selected research field, the hypotheses
were formulated as follows:
1. The political actions of the decision-making centres of Greece, Spain, and
Italy with regard to economic matters, both on central and regional levels, led
to serious interference in the functioning of their political systems.
2. The economic crisis in Greece, Spain, and in Italy seriously interfered in the
5. The economic crisis in Greece, Spain, and in Italy helped intensify the for-
mulation of anti-system postulates by selected political groups.
Verification of the aforementioned detailed hypotheses that were formulated
on the basis of the previously posed research question, serves to help check the
validity of the main research hypothesis, which assumes that in conditions of
representative democracy, the economic situation of a state is one of the most
crucial factors determining the stability and sustainability of a political system.
The better the economic situation of a state, the more stable and sustainable the
political system is. In an economic crisis situation, the stability and sustainabil-
ity of a political system is put in serious jeopardy.
The timeframe covered by the study encompasses the years 2008—2016.
The period starts from the dawn of the world economic crisis, the consequences
of which had an immense impact on the functioning of the political systems of
the studied states. The end of the period is marked by the year 2016 in which
political events of great importance, especially for Spain in Italy, occurred. In
Spain, for the first time since the establishment of constitutional order in 1978, it
was not possible to appoint a central government after the elections and they had
to be organised once again. In Italy, on the other hand, the parliament adopted
a constitutional amendment draft.
Due to the nature of the research material, the authors will employ several
research methods in their study. In light of the comparative nature of the pro-
posed research, the comparative method will be the most important method
used. Its application will allow the authors to identify the similarities and dif-
ferences in the functioning of selected political systems in the conditions of an
economic crisis. Research of the legal solutions adopted in Greece, Spain, and
Research and methodological assumptions
15
Italy that relate to the functioning of political systems, will be conducted using
the legal-institutional analysis method. The use of the system analysis method
mentioned above will make it possible to achieve the desired objectives by us-
ing both a macro-system analysis (for studying political systems as coherent
wholes), mid-tier analysis (for studying the functioning of party systems), and
micro-system analysis (e.g. for presenting the influence of individual political
parties on the functioning of an entire political system). Assessing the phenom-
ena and socio-political processes through the prism of political decision-making
centres will be conducted using the decision-making method. In order to outline
the historical background of the studied phenomena, it will also be necessary to
apply the historical method.
The subject of the first chapter is the economic crisis in Greece, Spain, and
Italy, which clearly began manifesting itself around 2008. The aim of this part
of the book is to research what were the economic causes and manifestations of
the crisis in Greece, Spain, and Italy and how the crisis influenced the economic
situation of the studied states. This part is going to form the starting point and
a background for the analysis presented in the subsequent chapters, that is, for
determining if and how the consequences of the economic crisis influenced the
functioning of the political systems in Greece, Spain, and Italy.
In the first fragment of Chapter 1, the author lists the causes of the crisis,
which from the point of view of the studied states were of an “external” nature,
that is, the global causes of the crisis as identified by the literature, which neither
Greece, Spain nor Italy could prevent. The second part of the first chapter deals
with the causes and economic consequences of the crisis in Greece, Spain, and
in Italy. It points to the circumstances, conditions, events, data, etc., which are
both peculiar to each individual state and result from the membership of these
states in the European Union. In order to provide as clear and concise a picture
as possible of how the economic situation evolved in Greece, Spain, and Italy
during the crisis, several various kinds of statistical data were presented which
reflect changes to the macroeconomic situation. This data concerns the period
immediately preceding the start of the crisis and after 2008, mostly until 2015,
inclusively. As there is no commonly accepted set of indicators in the literature
that would help illustrate the condition and changes in the economic system of
a state, and given that discrepancies here are quite extensive,22 these indicators
were selected at the sole discretion of the authors. Eurostat has been the most
extensively used source of data in the study. Tables with data presenting the dy-
namics of change in the position of Greece, Spain, and Italy in economic com-
petition rankings have additionally been employed. They have been prepared
22 See for example T. kubin: “Economic System of the European Union. Between Particu-
larism and Universalism.” Studia Politicae Universitatis Silesiensis 2015, vol. 14, pp. 25—27.
16
Tomasz Kubin, Małgorzata Lorencka, Małgorzata Myśliwiec
by several international institutions and published periodically as reports. They
take the form of data syntheses, in which dozens and sometimes hundreds of
various kinds of data, indicators, factors, variables etc. are taken into account.
Their incorporation in the study was meant to provide an analysis and show
how various economic competitiveness aspects of Greece, Spain, and Italy were
evaluated in the course of the crisis, or how the crisis affected competitiveness.
Given the different definitions of an economy’s competitiveness, these rankings
emphasise slightly different factors determining how competitive an economy
is and they have been prepared using different methodologies and take into ac-
count various factors, data, etc. For this reason, in order to gain a more complete
picture of the situation, rankings contained in reports prepared by international
institutions/organisations (The Heritage Foundation, World Economic Forum,
International Institute for Management Development, the World Bank Group)
were taken into consideration, and the final score achieved is the result of more
complex evaluations and analyses. Another practically significant and synthetic
assessment of the condition of the economy and its changes is provided by rat-
ing agencies’ recommendations. They have also been included in the study and
encompass the long-term ratings of Greece, Spain, and Italy issued by Moody’s,
Standard Poor’s and Fitch Ratings rating agencies.
Additionally, the summaries illustrating the economic situation in the coun-
tries studied also include tables with the corruption perception index (issued by
Transparency International) and estimates on the size of the informal economy
(based on the research of Friedrich Schneider from the Johannes Kepler Uni-
versity in Linz).
In order to better illustrate the scale of changes in the economic situations of
Greece, Spain, and Italy, their evolution was compared to that of other countries
of the European Union. The first chapter also shows the actions taken mainly
in Greece and Spain to mitigate the effects of the economic crisis and improve
the macroeconomic situation. Other sources used in this part of the book also
include EU’s legal acts, documents of EU institutions, and carefully selected
literature on the subject.
Chapter 2 deals with the functioning of the political system of contemporary
Greece. It starts from the words of Alexis Tsipras spoken in the parliament dur-
ing his first speech following his party’s victory on 25 January 2015: “It is not
only a Greek crisis. The crisis is European.”23 What is striking is the fact that it
was a very significant declaration. For the first time since the fall of the Regime
of the Colonels in 1974, power in Greece was taken over by the Syriza, a radi-
23 Speech of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to the House of Deputies on 8 February 2015:
Προγραμματικές Δηλώσεις: Ομιλία του Πρωθυπουργού Α. Τσίπρα (08/02/2015), http://primem
inister.gr/2015/02/08/13322 (accessed 10.02.2015).
Research and methodological assumptions
17
cal left-wing group which formed a coalition with the nationalist Independent
Greeks party. In the face of a deep economic crisis, several years of recession
and the threat of bankruptcy of the state after 2008, both the political powers
took a tough stance against austerity and financial cuts, which the cabinets
of the socialist PASOK party and the conservative New Democracy party had
subscribed to.
From among the states of southern Europe, which according to Hunting-
ton’s third wave of democracy created a consolidated democratic system, it was
Greece that was hit hardest with the effects of the economic crisis of 2008. It
also had the biggest effect on the functioning of its political system that was
established on the basis of the constitution of 1975. Only foreign financial as-
sistance kept Greece from formally declaring bankruptcy, however, the price to
pay for the subsequent bailouts (in 2010, 2012, and 2015) meant even further
relinquishment of its power (than that provided solely by membership in the EU)
to make decisions concerning its economy. Each consecutive bailout involved
the need to introduce specific structural reforms, control their implementation,
and was burdened with the risk of it being suspended by the now defunct Troika,
that is, the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission, and the Eu-
ropean Central Bank. Not even a referendum carried out on 5 July 2015 which
rejected the consecutive bound transaction (financial assistance in exchange for
further reforms and cuts), including a threat of a so-called Grexit (i.e. Greece’s
withdrawal from the euro area), considerably influenced the conditions of the
subsequent bailout. In this situation, the parliament was forced to accept the
proposed bailout package with all its consequences within 48 hours without
conducting a longer debate in the House of Deputies. A research hypothesis
was drawn from these events stating that a deepening economic crisis and the
need to pursue further financial assistance led the political institutions of the
Greek state to relinquish even more of its sovereignty to international organi-
sations and resulted in the further radicalisation of public sentiment and the
strengthening of extreme parties. In order to verify this hypothesis, a decision
was made to first verify the validity of more detailed research assumptions. Sev-
eral essential issues were considered. Firstly, the following question was posed:
To what degree did the consecutive financial bankruptcies in Greece after it
had gained independence in 1830 influenced the current political situation in
the state? It was then assumed that the lack of strong statehood in a situation
where Greece “entered the modern era as a province of the Ottoman Empire,
in which the state elites were recruited to work for a foreign power lacking
legitimacy,”24 contributed to a lack of a strong tradition of civil society. Ac-
cording to the authors, this situation led, in consequence, to the growth of state
24 F. Fukuyama: Ład polityczny i polityczny regres. Od rewolucji przemysłowej do globa-
lizacji demokracji. Trans. J. Pyka. Poznań 2015, p. 124.
18
Tomasz Kubin, Małgorzata Lorencka, Małgorzata Myśliwiec
administration, nepotism, and consolidation of a clientelistic system, which was
the reason for political stagnation and lack of essential reforms, which the two
main political parties, namely PASOK and New Democracy, were incapable
of introducing. The critical economic situation of the post-2008 state and the
austerity policy further deepened the already weak public confidence in state
institutions, which contributed to a radicalisation of social sentiment. It was
also noticed that a long-term economic crisis and the policy of austerity led to
the emergence of a new socio-political divide: for/against conditional financial
support by foreign institutions, which resulted in the rise in the importance of
radical political groups such as the left-wing Syriza or the neo-fascist Golden
Dawn parties. Consideration was also given in Chapter 2 to whether the lack of
economic stability in Greece was related to the political instability of the gov-
ernment cabinets and the need to conduct the sixth early parliamentary elections
(in a row), which had paved radical groups’ surge to power in 2015. The author
of Chapter 2 also realizes that in the case of Greece, a significantly crucial proc-
ess that further deepened the economic and political crisis was an increase in
the influx of immigrants from the Middle East and northern Africa as a result of
the military conflicts that raged in those parts of the world. The considerations
contained in Chapter 2 end in a summary.
Chapter 3 is devoted to the functioning of the political system of Spain af-
ter 2008. The starting point for analysis were the events from the turn of 2015,
when a completely new political power setup appeared in the lower house of
the Spanish parliament following election to the Congress of Deputies. Its spe-
cificity and the divergent political interests presented by the politicians of the
particular groups, led to the most serious governmental crisis in this country
since the establishment of democratic constitutional order in 1978.
The structure of the chapter is based on a series of detailed hypotheses and
on a general hypothesis, which were raised at the beginning of the chapter and
correspond to the detailed questions and hypotheses and the main hypothesis
mentioned at the beginning of the book. The first part strives to determine to
what extent the consecutive economic crises in the history of Spain impacted the
shaping of the political system of this state in the second half of the 20th centu-
ry. Next, a study was conducted to determine to what degree the deep economic
crisis of 2008 led to a deterioration of public confidence in the institutions of the
Spanish state that had been shaped in the second half of the 20th century. The
subsequent parts of the chapter demonstrate the consequences of this weakening
of confidence: the emergence of new social movements fighting for the rights of
those bearing the brunt of the economic crisis, utilisation of their social impact
to build the political position of new Spanish state-wide parties, their winning of
a considerable amount of votes to the Congress of Deputies, their thwarting of
attempts to form a government in the political centre, and proposals of the main
Research and methodological assumptions
19
actors of the political party scene to change the 1978 constitution. The analysis
contained in Chapter 3 also covers issues related to the surge in decentralising
tendencies in Catalonia.
The summary of Chapter 3 contains conclusions produced by the research
that are presented as a verification of the posed detailed hypotheses and the
main hypothesis.
Chapter 4 discusses how the economic crisis affected the functioning of
Italy’s political system after 2008. Analysis of this area took into account our
assumption that the economic crisis had a much weaker effect on Italy than
on other southern European countries. Nevertheless, its consequences exerted
a considerable effect on the current reconstruction of the political scene, con-
tributed to the systematic introduction of social and economic reforms and the
drafting of an amended constitution, which was adopted in 2016.
According to our assumptions, Italy, in contrast to Greece or Spain, did not
have to ask for external financial assistance. However, due to pressure from
the European Union, public opinion and falling rating agency scores, it was
forced to introduce austerity measures (e.g. decrease its budget deficit, mitigate
growing national debt, limit high unemployment levels among young people),
conduct the necessary structural reforms and stimulate economic growth. In
2012, an amendment of article 81 of Italy’s constitution was adopted, whereby
a budget stability law was introduced. In politics, insufficient actions to rectify
the Italian economy resulted in the dismissal of the centre-right government
of Silvio Berlusconi on 12 November 2011, which had been appointed as a re-
sult of the 2008 parliamentary elections, the disintegration of Berlusconi’s The
People of Freedom party and the appointment of a non-partisan government of
technocrats led by Mario Monti. The effects of the economic crisis deepened
the already existing dissatisfaction with the stagnant political elites, leading to
the emergence of a group called the Five Star Movement as a manifestation of
public disillusionment with bipolar political competition and the assumption of
power by a new generation of politicians under the leadership of 39-year-old
Matteo Renzi in February 2014. For the purposes of the analysis it was therefore
assumed in Chapter 4 that the economic crisis in Italy after 2008 had acceler-
ated political change, a process which was naturally accompanied by social and
economic issues. Verification of such a hypothesis was to be assisted by the
prior verification of several detailed hypotheses. The first of them assumed that
the division of the country into the poor Mezzogiorno and the rich North has
existed since Italy’s unification in 1861. Such a structured social and economic
division continues to be the main factor determining the weak development of
civil society in the south of the country, weaker confidence in state institutions
and in the activity of mafia-type organisations (e.g. the Mafia Capitale in Rome).
In this situation, numerous corruption scandals, an inefficient justice system,
a clientelistic state and a continuously overgrown bureaucratic system impede,
20
Tomasz Kubin, Małgorzata Lorencka, Małgorzata Myśliwiec
and at times prevent, necessary reforms altogether. Social discontent instigated
by the aforementioned factors was the main contributing factors behind the ap-
pointment of the technocratic government of Mario Monti. However, the dis-
missal of the centre-right government in 2008 as a result of the economic crisis
led political groups to begin cooperating with each other. It also weakened the
political divide into parties which had either supported or opposed Silvio Berlus-
coni’s politics, an arrangement that had existed since 1993. It was also assumed
that social discontent was the main factor which had led to the emergence of
a new populist and anti-systemic group called the Five Stars Movement and to
a change of political competition towards a three-bloc system. The next research
assumption states that the restructuring of the party system forced on by the
crisis contributed to the creation of unstable cabinets formed out of centre-right
and centre-left groups after the 2013 parliamentary elections. Furthermore, it
was the economic crisis and the political instability that increased the role and
significance of the President of the Italian Republic Giorgio Napolitano (Italy’s
first ever president to be elected for the second term) and of the Constitutional
Court (e.g. decision on the unconstitutionality of the parliamentary election law
in 2014). An analysis was also made to determine how the 2008 economic crisis
contributed to the dissolution of Italy’s provinces, that is, the second level the
country’s territorial division, and thus to the prevention of further decentralisa-
tion. As in the previous chapters, the research assumptions stated here will also
be verified at the end of the chapter.
A summary of the discussions, found in the part titled “Verification of re-
search assumptions,” answers to the research questions posed, and verification/
falsification of the assumed detailed hypotheses is included at the end. Given
the problem-centred approach of the publication and in order to ensure greater
transparency, the references presented herein are broken down thematically and
located at the end of each of the book’s chapters.
The authors would also like to thank all those whose assistance and good-
will helped in the writing of this book.
The chapter on the political system of Greece would not be as rich in in-
formation had it not been for the remarks of Professor Kostas Mavrias and
Dr. Marianthi G. Kalyviotou from the Scientific Council of the Greek Par-
liament, Professor Dimitrios A. Sotiropoulos from the University of Athens,
Dr. Giulia Aravantinou Leonidi from the “La Sapienza” University in Rome and
Mr. Alex andros Andrikopoulos.
We would also like to thank His Excellence Agustín Núñez Martínez, the
Ambassador of Spain in Poland and Ms. Carmen Batres Rodríguez, the Advisor
for Information at the Embassy of Spain in Poland, for their very insightful input
and help in understanding the internal situation in Spain after 2008.
Research and methodological assumptions
21
The final shape of the chapter devoted to the Italian political system was de-
termined thanks to the inspiration of the work of Professor Zbigniew Witkowski
from the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Professor Fulco Lanchester
from the “La Sapienza” University in Rome and Professor Filberto Agostini
from the University of Padova.
Special acknowledgements also go to Dr. Joanna Ciesielska-Klikowska from
the University of Lodz and to Dr. Sławomir Czech from the Katowice Univer-
sity of Economics for his contribution in a scientific discussion on the effects
of the 2008 economic crisis in the states of southern Europe and in Germany
and Sweden.
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Wpływ kryzysu gospodarczego
na działanie systemu politycznego
Analiza przypadku Grecji, Hiszpanii i Włoch
St reszczenie
Głównym celem naukowym niniejszej pracy jest ukazanie wpływu kryzysu gospodarczego
na działanie systemu politycznego. Przedmiotem badań szczegółowych były tu natomiast sy-
stemy polityczne Grecji, Hiszpanii i Włoch. To właśnie w tych państwach członkowskich Unii
Europejskiej skutki światowego kryzysu gospodarczego w największym stopniu przełożyły się
na funkcjonowanie konstytutywnych elementów systemu politycznego.
Nadrzędna hipoteza badawcza brzmi: w warunkach systemy demokracji przedstawicielskiej
sytuacja gospodarcza danego kraju to jeden z głównych determinantów stabilności i ciągłości
systemu politycznego. Im lepszy jest stan gospodarki państwa, tym większa stabilność funkcjo-
nalna i trwałość jego systemu politycznego. Niemniej jednak w warunkach kryzysu gospodar-
czego owa ciągłość jest poważnie zagrożona.
Analiza wpływu kryzysu gospodarczego na działanie systemu politycznego doprowadziła
Autorów do sformułowania następujących hipotez szczegółowych:
1. Działania ośrodków podejmujących decyzje polityczne w Grecji, Hiszpanii i we Włoszech
w zakresie kwestii gospodarczych — zarówno na szczeblu centralnym, jak i na szczeblach
regionalnych — doprowadziły do poważnych zakłóceń w zakresie funkcjonowania systemów
politycznych.
2. Kryzys gospodarczy w Grecji, Hiszpanii i we Włoszech zakłócił w poważny sposób rytm
3. Kryzys gospodarczy w Grecji, Hiszpanii i we Włoszech wpłynął na funkcjonowanie syste-
cykli wyborczych.
mów partyjnych owych państw.
4. Kryzys gospodarczy w Hiszpanii i we Włoszech w znaczącym stopniu wpłynął na nasilenie
się tendencji odśrodkowych w owych państwach.
5. Kryzys gospodarczy w Grecji, Hiszpanii i we Włoszech wpłynął na nasilenie się procesu
formułowania postulatów antysystemowych przez wybrane ugrupowania polityczne.
We wprowadzeniu do głównej części pracy przedstawione zostały założenia badawcze
i metodologiczne. Rozdział 1 zawiera analizę przyczyn, przebiegu i skutków kryzysu gospodar-
czego po roku 2008. Kolejne trzy rozdziały prezentują analizę następstw rzeczonego kryzysu
zaobserwowanych w działaniu systemów politycznych Grecji, Hiszpanii i Włoch. Rozdział pod-
sumowujący zawiera natomiast ogólne wnioski wynikające z przeprowadzonych badań.
Translated by
Krystian Wojcieszuk
L’impatto della crisi economica
sul funzionamento del sistema politico
L’analisi dei casi studio della Grecia, della Spagna e dell’Italia
R iassunto
Il principale obiettivo scientifico del lavoro è quello di mettere in luce l’impatto della crisi
economica sul funzionamento del sistema politico. Il tema della ricerca dettagliata sono i sistemi
politici della Grecia, della Spagna e dell’Italia, perché proprio in questi paesi dell’Unione Eu-
ropea, le conseguenze della crisi economica mondiale sembrano avere il maggiore impatto sul
funzionamento dei principali elementi costitutivi del sistema politico.
L’ipotesi fondamentale della ricerca è il presupposto che in una democrazia rappresentativa,
la situazione economica dello stato è uno dei fattori più importanti che determinano la stabilità
e la perseveranza del sistema politico. Quanto migliore è la situazione economica dello Stato,
tanto maggiore è la stabilità del funzionamento e la sostenibilità del sistema politico. Tuttavia,
nella situazione di crisi economica, la stabilità e la durata del sistema politico sono seriamente
in pericolo.
L’analisi dell’impatto della crisi economica sul funzionamento dei sistemi politici ha spinto
gli autori ad avanzare le seguenti ipotesi specifiche:
1. Le azioni delle istituzioni responsabili per le decisioni politiche in Grecia, Spagna e Italia
nell’ambito delle questioni economiche — sia a livello centrale che regionale — hanno portato
a gravi interruzioni nel funzionamento dei sistemi politici di questi paesi.
2. La crisi economica in Grecia, Spagna e Italia ha interrotto seriamente le scadenze dei cicli
elettorali.
3. La crisi economica in Grecia, Spagna e Italia ha influenzato grandemente il funzionamento
4. La crisi economica ha contribuito in modo significativo alla intensificazione delle tendenze
dei sistemi politici di questi paesi.
centrifughe in Spagna e in Italia.
5. La crisi economica in Grecia, Spagna e Italia ha contribuito alla intensificazione del processo
di formulazione delle richieste di antisistema da parte di gruppi politici selezionati.
All’introduzione di questo lavoro, ci sono stati presentati i sostanziali presupposti e gli studi
metodologici fatti. Nel primo capitolo sono stati analizzati i problemi connessi alla genesi, al
corso e alle conseguenze della crisi economica del’anno 2008. I tre capitoli successivi forniscono
un’analisi dei risultati di questa crisi sul funzionamento dei sistemi politici in Grecia, Spagna
e Italia. Alla fine del libro sono state raccolte conclusioni generali derivanti da ricerca.
Translated by
Małgorzata Lorencka
Η επίδραση της οικονομικής κρίσης στην λειτουργία
του πολιτικού συστήματος
Η ανάλυση της περίπτωσης της Ελλάδας, της Ισπανίας και της Ιταλίας
Σύνοψη
Ο βασικός σκοπός αυτής της επιστημονικής εργασίας είναι να αποδείξει την επίδραση της
οικονομικής κρίσης στο πολιτικό σύστημα. Το κύριο θέμα της λεπτομερούς έρευνας ήταν τα
πολιτικά συστήματα της Ελλάδας, της Ισπανίας και της Ιταλίας, επειδή σ’αυτά τα κράτη της
Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης οι συνέπειες της παγκόσμιας κρίσης φαίνεται να έχουν την πιο ισχυρή
επίδραση στην λειτουργία των σημαντικότερων στοιχείων του πολιτικού συστήματος.
Η βασική ερευνητική υπόθεση είναι το ότι στις συνθήκες μιας αντιπροσωπευτικής δημο-
κρατίας η οικονομική κατάσταση του κράτους είναι ένας από τους πιο σημαντικούς παράγοντες
που καθορίζουν την ισορροπία και σταθερότητα του πολιτικού συστήματος. Όσο πιο καλή είναι
αυτή, τόσο πιο σταθερή είναι η λειτουργία και η δυνατότητα επιβίωσης του πολιτικού συστή-
ματος. Σε περίπτωση οικονομικής κρίσης η βιωσιμότητα και η σταθερότητα του συστήματος
κινδυνεύουν σοβαρά.
Η ανάλυση των επιδράσεων της οικονομικής κρίσης στη λειτουργία των πολιτικών συστημά-
των έπεισε τους ερευνητές να προτείνουν τις παρακάτω λεπτομερείς ερευνητικές προϋποθέσεις:
1. Οι δράσεις των κέντρων των πολιτικών αποφάσεων στην Ελλάδα, την Ισπανία και την Ιταλία
όσων αφορά τα οικονομικά — τόσο σε κεντρικό όσο και σε περιφερειακό επίπεδο — δημι-
ούργησαν σοβαρά προβλήματα στην λειτουργία του συστήματος.
2. Η οικονομική κρίση στην Ελλάδα, την Ισπανία και την Ιταλία διατάραξε σοβαρά τον ρυθμό
επανάληψης των εκλογικών αναμετρήσεων.
3. Η οικονομική κρίση στην Ελλάδα, την Ισπανία και την Ιταλία επιρρέασε σημαντικά την
λειτουργία των πολιτικών κομμάτων (σε όλα αυτά τα κράτη).
4. Η οικονομική κρίση στην Ισπανία και την Ιταλία αύξησε σημαντικά τις φυγόκεντρες τάσεις
5. Η οικονομική κρίση στην Ισπανία και την Ιταλία αύξησε σημαντικά τα αντισυστημικά αιτή-
στα κράτη αυτά.
ματα από μερικά πολιτικά κόμματα.
Στην εισαγωγή παρουσιάστηκαν οι ουσιαστικές και μεθοδολογικές υποθέσεις των ερευνών
που έγιναν. Στο πρώτο κεφάλαιο αναλύθηκαν τα προβλήματα που αφορούν την γένεση, την πορεία
και τις συνέπειες της οικονομικής κρίσης του 2008. Τα ακόλουθα τρία κεφάλαια περιλαμβάνουν
την ανάλυση των συνεπειών της κρίσης για τα πολιτικά συστήματα στην Ελλάδα, την Ισπανία
και την Ιταλία. Ο επίλογος περιέχει τα γενικά συμπεράσματα που προκύπτουν από την έρευνα.
Translated by
Małgorzata Lorencka
El impacto de la crisis económica sobre el sistema politico
El análisis del caso de Grecia, España e Italia
Resumen
El principal objetivo científico del trabajo es mostrar el impacto de la crisis económica
sobre el funcionamiento del sistema político. La investigación detallada estaba concentrada en
l
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